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Do I Call or Fold? How Bayes’ Theorem Can Help Navigate Poker’s Uncertainty, Part 2

Related Topics: Thomas Bayes, Poker, Theorem, Probability

In last week’s article, I introduced you to a mathematical tool called Bayes’ Theorem. It’s a way of combining two pieces of information in order to arrive at a best estimate of a probability of something. There we learned about the methodology of Bayes’ Theorem, noting how useful it can be when faced with certain decisions at the tables. It’s time (finally!) to get to some poker examples.

Let’s imagine you’re playing a heads-up cash game for all the money you have in the world. (Which is a bad idea. Don’t ever do that.) Your opponent is named Teddy, and he bears an uncanny resemblance to John Malkovich.