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Third & Long Study: Recent NFL 1st Round Rookie Quarterbacks Since 2017

Recently, I provided an article that looked at rookie NFL quarterbacks in the extended red zone, an area quarterback Kenny Pickett and the 2022 Pittsburgh Steelers struggled mightily in. Today’s goal is to take a similar view, but in another critical area for team and quarterback success in the passing game, third and long (seven yards or more). Let’s dive in and see how Pickett’s rookie season stacked up with recent rookie quarterbacks in their first year.

First, let’s look at Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (ANY/A) which is Passing yards – Sack Yards + (20 * Passing TD) – (45 * Interceptions)) / (Passes Attempted + Times Sacked), along with average throw depth (excluding spikes and throwaways) in these situations from Sports Info Solutions (SIS):

Of the 20 qualifying quarterbacks that received playing time in their rookie seasons since 2017, Pickett landed just below the mean with a 4.