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Arthur Smith Study: Offensive EPA Success By Down (2019-2023)

Continuing to learn about new Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, I wanted to dive into how things have shaken out on a down-by-down basis. That is an extremely important facet of how a team performs with the goal to see what we can glean for the 2024 season.

The stats I will use are Expected Points Added per play (EPA/play) and success sates (EPA > 0) via nflfastR, including all run and pass plays for every NFL offense since 2019 (160 qualifiers). On the visuals, Smith’s coaching stops, and Pittsburgh squads will have colored logos for easier comparative context.