I’ve finally gotten around to tabulating the TOX stats from the first two weeks of the 2015 NFL season and as expected, the plus-two number is alive and well.
In Week 1, teams that finished a game with a plus-two or better TOX stat went 8-2 (80%). If you know the history related to this stat, that’s the exact expected win percentage.
In Week 2, teams that finished a game with a plus-two or better TOX stat went 9-1 (90%). Year-to-date, the plus-two teams are 17-3 (85%).
Curiously enough, the Pittsburgh Steelers were one of the three teams that have lost with a plus-two TOX stat.