Earlier this offseason, I wrote about distributions, player value, and risk using different assumptions about four “completely made up players.” Each player was assigned a mean projections for fWAR per 600 plate appearances and a standard deviation based on different assumptions to illustrate the point.
Three of the players were assumed to have a normal distribution with the fourth being more of a log normal-distribution because of the risk involved with his injury history but the potential he still could provide, though now we can pretend that this imaginary player signed with an American League East team to play shortstop as that team’s regular shortstop is currently injured.