Last summer at this time, when it came from regression from 2020-21 moving forward, it was easy to see that Jeff Carter was in for a fall to Earth after scoring 13 goals in 20 games in a Penguin jersey (regular season plus playoffs). Kasperi Kapanen was due to regress too after a career-high 16.2% shooting season helped lead to 30 points in just 40 games. In both cases, those were right on, but even probably more than it would have been guesses at the time.
Carter still scored 19 goals in the regular season and four more in the playoffs, fine for a veteran forward (more troubling was his advanced stats and getting caved in for large portions of the season with chances against).