First round picks are a gamble, no matter what the team and where they are selecting.
Talent is nearly impossible to truly grade in most cases, and one must look at all players taken in the NBA Draft as a lottery ticket: you hope to win the jackpot; (depending on where they are selecting) you hope to win a few bucks; you are okay if you only break even; and only in sports and not in a Circle K, you are really upset if you lose money on the purchase.
If one can quantify talent and production into a monetary comparison, then the Phoenix Suns have lost a lot of money on failed and thus wasted first round picks in the last ten years, the total of which is staggering.