The baseball playoffs confound analysis. The sample sizes are way too small, and there’s too much that’s impossible for anyone outside the clubhouses to know, from who has an undisclosed injury or a cold to how players—or managers, or umpires—will deal with hostile crowds and October intensity. All this is doubly true when you’re considering teams that share deep knowledge and mutual contempt, as is the case with the Phillies and Mets.
They are also more evenly matched than you probably think. The Phillies’ actual record was 95-67; their Pythagorean record, or expected results based on runs scored and allowed, was 92-70.