We don’t know when the owner-imposed lockout will end. The current work stoppage is unlikely to cut into the regular season, but it could lead to a very short window for a flurry of free agent and trade activity prior to spring training.
We also don’t know what the luxury tax is actually going to be. Technically, the 2021 collective bargaining tax threshold of $210 million expired when the last collective bargaining agreement expired on Dec. 1 at 11:59 p.m ET.