Here we are, just two sleeps away from seeing the Philadelphia Eagles dethrone play the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. How favorable do leaders in the world of NFL advanced statistics view the Eagles’ chances?
Let’s start with Vegas (granted, not a leader in advanced stats but bear with me). The Eagles opened as six point underdogs. Historically this translates to just an estimated 31% chance of winning. Since then, the Vegas line has dropped to the 4-4.5 point range. This doesn’t increase our odds by too much though: 35.