“Third and manageable” sounds great, but there’s a competitive advantage in being aggressive on second down. This is especially true when coming off a first down incompletion, as coaches have shown a tendency to lean run in those situations.
For example, after a first down incompletion, the five teams with the highest success rates in 2017 had a plus-60% pass rate. Yet some still buck the data and go with their gut, opting for the comfort of cowardice. The Philadelphia Eagles, shockingly, were a run heavy team in those situations that year. That was until they reached the playoffs, which Warren Sharp detailed for Bleeding Green Nation last offseason.