Carson Wentz has built a reputation for making bonkers plays out of structure. He’s also got the arm to fit bullets through keyholes. What if you could quantify those throws with tracking data and, jeez I don’t know, compile them in a tidy top 10 list?
Well that’s exactly what I’ve done using Next Gen Stats. For context, Next Gen defines “Completion Probability” as such:
“Using Next Gen Stats tracking data, we built a machine learning model that determines the probability of a pass being completed, and we named that stat Completion Probability.