I followed NBA free agency this summer with great interest. Beyond the Sixer moves, what most intrigued me was the significant number of players who signed for far more or less than seemed justified to me by their play. When I mentioned this to friends, the common response was that I was just a nerdy blogger eating Cheetos in my Mom’s basement, and the folks doing the signing were big-time professional basketball experts. Well, they didn’t say it quite like that; my friends are nice! Still, they questioned whether my faith in on-off stats, which after all can be easily influenced by luck, might be misplaced.