When Oregon takes on Florida State in Thursday's Rose Bowl game, it'll be the first official elimination game in the modern era of Division 1 college football. This matchup pits this year's Heisman winner, Marcus Mariota, against last year's winner, Jameis Winston...and the drama just starts there. Let's take a look at who has the edge and give our predictions for Thursday's game:
Offense
Marcus Mariota has overshadowed Oregon's offensive weapons this year, but don't let that fool you into thinking they don't have any. Running back Royce Freeman is averaging 5.6 yards per carry, and has 16 touchdowns on the year so far despite getting fewer touches than any of the country's leading backs. WRs Byron Marshall, Devon Allen, Dwayne Stanford, Darren Carrington and freshman dynamo Charles Nelson would all be standouts individually, but Oregon HC Mark Helfrich likes to spread them around the field. The Ducks did lose TE Pharaoh Brown to a season-ending injury in November against Utah, but the depth in Oregon's receiving corps has helped them compensate.
Florida State lost some key players to the draft last year in WR Kelvin Benjamin and RB Devonta Freeman, but the Seminoles have found more-than-capable replacements in WR Rashad Greene and RB Karlos Williams. While FSU's wins haven't been as one-sided as Oregon's, they're still putting up nearly 35 points per game while averaging just shy of 300 yards per contest through the air (the Seminoles are ranked 14th out of all 128 FBS teams in passing yards per game). FSU's offense doesn't get the same kind of recognition Oregon's does, but don't be fooled into thinking they aren't dangerous too.
EDGE: Oregon
Defense
Oregon has exactly one starter who isn't a junior or a senior - redshirt sophomore safety Reggie Daniels is the only Duck without at least two full campaigns under his belt. The Ducks have a well-balanced defense that puts heavy pressure on opposing quarterbacks...something Jameis Winston will definitely want to avoid as he looks to start strong. If you're keeping an eye on NFL talent, make sure to watch CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, a ball hawk who some scouts have compared to Darrelle Revis.
Florida State has a much younger defense - none of their starters is a senior - but they aren't lacking when it comes to talent. The Seminoles had four players on the All-ACC First Team, including DE Mario Edwards Jr., DT Eddie Goldman, CB PJ Williams and S Jalen Ramsey. The Seminoles' biggest issue on defense was no doubt consistency - some days, they looked like one of the best units in the country, and other days...well, on other days, they let NC State score 24 points in one quarter.
Oregon creates more turnovers and gets to the quarterback more frequently, but FSU has a more talented defense that has better numbers against passing attacks.
EDGE: Even
Special Teams
Florida State has a minor edge in kicking and punting, while the Ducks are marginally better in the return game.
EDGE: Even
Other Notes
- Florida State has the edge when it comes to coaching, but that's no knock on Oregon's Mark Helfrich. Jimbo Fisher is 58-10 overall, undefeated in bowl games and last lost a game in November 2012...so while you can't knock Helfrich's excellent results since taking over in Oregon, Fisher has been having that kind of success for several years now.
- Oregon has a total of 40 receiving touchdowns with just two interceptions on the year. FSU has 25 receiving TDs, but 19 interceptions.
- Oregon has allowed 3374 passing yards this year, which puts them 120th out of all 128 FBS teams. Before you freak out, remember that teams playing from behind don't run the ball very much, and a good chunk of those yards came against Oregon's second string. While Oregon is 120th out of 128 FBS squads, there are still four Pac-12 teams ranked lower - Washington State, Arizona, Washington and Cal have all allowed more yards through the air.
Predictions
- Florida State gets off to another slow start, with at least two turnovers in the first half.
- The Ducks also have trouble unlocking FSU's secondary, with Marcus Mariota unable to find his rhythm until the second half.
- FSU's winning streak finally comes to an end, with Oregon winning 37-31.
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