[caption id="attachment_258" align="alignleft" width="300" caption="The Ducks have had a chip on their shoulder since the NCAA Committee slapped a twelfth seed on them"]
[/caption]The University of Oregon Ducks took down fifth-seeded Oklahoma State and fourth-seeded Saint Louis last week en route to their first Sweet 16 since 2007.
In order to reach the Elite 8, Oregon is going to have to take down the number one overall seeded Louisville Cardinals Friday afternoon—a feat that is not going to be easy.
Louisville enters the game on a 12-game winning streak—including a Big East Tournament Championship. The Cardinals have cruised to the Sweet 16, outscoring their opponents 161-104 through the first two games.
If there was one team right now that could give Louisville a tough match, it’s the Oregon Ducks.
As impressive as the Cardinals’ first two wins, Oregon has shadowed their success—outscoring their opponents 142-102.
Defense has been crucial for the Ducks through their first two tournament wins.
In their first game they forced Oklahoma State to turn the ball over 14 times and shoot a measly 40% from the field. They followed that game with forcing Saint Louis to 12 turnovers and 37% shooting.
On top of their stellar defense, Oregon has done an incredible job out rebounding their opponents—81 to 53. This is largely due to 33 total rebounds by Senior Forward Arsalan Kazemi through the first two games.
[caption id="attachment_256" align="alignright" width="300" caption="Arsalan Kazemi has been an emotional leader for the Ducks this NCAA Tournament"]
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Something that Oregon needs to be wary of is Louisville is great at forcing turnovers, averaging 22 forced turnovers in the tournament. The Ducks have averaged 18 turnovers in their first two games; if Oregon is to win this game they are going to have to take better care of the ball.
Yet again, the Ducks are entering the game as underdogs, but they have relished in the role that the nation has casted on them so far.
There are three keys to Oregon beating Louisville.
One key is the Ducks need to limit their turnovers. If they are able to keep their turnovers to fewer than 16, then Oregon comes out on top. Louisville uses other team’s turnovers to create fast break, easy baskets on offense—if the Ducks limit their turnovers, they can limit easy baskets for the Cardinals.
Secondly, Oregon needs to control the boards. The Ducks have controlled the boards in every game; controlling the boards limits the opponent’s second chance points giving Oregon a better shot at controlling the game.
Lastly, the Ducks need to keep Louisville’s top scorer Russ Smith to under 15 points, otherwise the game will get out of hand quickly. Smith has averaged 25 points per game in the Tournament shooting 54% from the field. It is likely that a combination of
Dameyan Dotson and E.J. Singler will cover Smith, but it is going to take a team effort to slow down the Cardinals’ superstar.
These are just three of the major keys that Oregon is going to need to focus on in order to have a chance at beating Louisville. It’s a long shot for the Ducks to win, but there have been crazier upsets this NCAA Tournament—hence why it is called March Madness.
If Oregon is to win, it is going to come down to the very end.
Not many people are going to agree with me but my prediction is: Oregon 71 Louisville 69.
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