Penn State week is finally here.
We’ve got a top-ten matchup in primetime, with GameDay visiting, and one of the biggest white outs in recent memory.
The Nittany Lions started off the year on legit upset alert, with a 45-38 win over Appalachian State. Their S&P+ win probability was just 60 percent—if they were to play the Mountaineers again. Since then they’ve played three more-or-less cupcake opponents (Pitt, Kent State, and Illinois), all of whom are ranked 75th or worse in the S&P+. When dealing with the S&P, there will be a standard error, especially if not a lot of data is present.