There aren’t a lot of people who would make a case against Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger being anything less than superb. Taking one glance at his exceptional career stat line, it’s easy to see why. However....
There are two halves to me. There’s the half that is your standard-typical Buckeyes homer, and then there is the half that egotistically believes I possess superior intelligence to the common fan when it comes to talent evaluation. These split personality-like
qualities are always budding. For instance: Was I surprised last year when every team passed on David Lighty in the draft? Yes!! And no. Was I surprised when the Blazers took a gamble on Jon Diebler? No. And yes. You get the point, right? As fans, we’re naturally inclined to think more highly of our guy than the common, objective eye; especially when you’re talking about an Ohio State fan. Diebler and Lighty were one thing, I was able to meet myself halfway and realistically determine that they both were ultimately destined to play basketball on the other side of the Atlantic. Jared Sullinger, on the other hand, is a bit different.
Sullinger is the best “next level” talent the Buckeyes have had since Greg Oden. He’s uniformly projected as a top five pick in this years draft (if he leaves), and he’s an almost near lock to finish on the first team ballot this season. Unless you’re a stereotypical Michigan courter or just someone who revels at going against the grain and picking star athletes apart, there really isn’t a case to argue against Sullinger being anything but great. So yes, it’s safe to say that when it comes to Jared Sullinger, for one of the few times, my two corresponding Buckeye/Chad Ford views are on the same page, right? 
Nope. The uglier half of me isn’t as amorous to Jared Sullinger as my other half that oozes scarlet and gray. That sounds dumb considering he’s been the best player on the best team in the country the past season and a half and counting (Sorry, correction: Best player on arguably the best team.), as well as the most NBA worthy Buckeye in recent memory. But it doesn’t sound so dumb when you take into consideration that, well...ok, maybe it is just dumb. Luckily though, I’m not going to shove a “2,000 word defamation of Jared Sullinger” down your throat in an attempt to dissuade your opinion on the fly. Instead, my counterpart and I will attempt to duke it out right here.
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Question: Have we overvalued Jared Sullinger's NBA value
Him: I see Sullinger going in the 5-8 range--if not later--because, as we creep closer to June, his stock will probably fall. Actually, it’s almost a given that it will, unless he puts on a Vernon Davis-like performance at the combine and/or carries the entire team on his back to a championship in March.
Me: He would have went in the top three last year if he came out. Come June, he will have one more season under his belt. The only thing his stock will do is rise unless he continues to be hampered with the injury bug all season long. If that happens, then you have a case to be made. But until then, I’ll just assume that you haven’t watched a whole lot of Jared Sullinger.
Him: I believe I’ve watched him as much as you. Here’s what you need to know: We know too much about him. We really do. And when it comes to the future prospectus of a player preparing to make the leap to the next level, that’s not a good thing, unless “what you know” is that he’s a guaranteed, non refundable, new and improved version of Zach Randolph. And he’s not quite there. He’s more flawed than you think.
This upcoming draft will be littered with explosive, quick, scorers with enormous ceilings. “Ceiling” is the key word here. Sullinger’s ceiling is relatively small. Have you watched a Kentucky, Carolina, and/or Connecticut game yet this year? You’d quickly see what I am talking about. Sullinger is a different type of talent in comparison to other high level player’s, particularly, on those squads. He is an outstanding player among his competition, but when it comes down to it, all I can really say about him is that he’s a great rebounder. Truthfully, it’s the only thing he does really well. You can take 
that for what it is worth, though. At this moment I see him being a poor man’s version of Kevin Love. How much poorer?-- I can’t accurately say. Maybe that isn’t such a bad thing, maybe it is? It depends on what your expectations are, and if I’m not mistaken, your’s are pretty high for him.
Me: All you can say is he’s a good rebounder? Have you been catechized through some sort of Mark May cult? He has one of the best inside games of anyone in college. That’s a rarity to find these days. If anything, he’s one of the more sure things. Surer than Derrick Williams last year.
Him: Your right, it is hard to come by. I think? At his less than ideal size, though, I’m not so sure that’s a swaying argument. But hey, I don’t know how high you are on a guy like Glen “Big Baby” Davis? The two are actually
strikingly similar. If you want to talk “sure things” that’s the kind of surety he is. But that’s a worst case type of scenario. Best case is Al Horford.
Me: First off, you didn’t just compare Sullinger to big baby Davis. They share the same general physique, that’s all. Second off, have you watched an Ohio State game all year? All you really need to do is watch the Duke game with Sullinger, then watch the Kansas game without. This team is a completely different team. Without Sullinger; Buford is all out of sorts, Thomas is forced to become the go to guy, and Craft all the sudden isn’t the same Aaron Craft. Without him, they’re a shell of the same team. I can rightfully argue that Sullinger is legitimately the most valuable player of any team in the country. If they had that award in college he would win it by a landslide. I mean come on, that says something, and not even you can dispute that. He just so happens to have THAT big of an impact on the game and he just so happens to be THAT good.
Him: I can’t, and won’t, argue against that. He’s definitely the key for the Buckeyes. He commands a double team nearly every time he’s on the block, and that goes a long way for any team at the college level; without that presence in there changing the floor plan, the team is guaranteed to be hindered. He’s faired well in handling the double team as well, even more so this year.
Me: I’m glad you brought that up. Other teams have been doubling him from day one. The times he does go one-on-one, the defender rarely stands a chance. All the defense can really do is foul him. It’s hard to imagine what Sully would do matched up one-on-one all game; even at the next level. We truly don’t even know, the proposal of it, alone, excites me.
Him: “All the defense can do is foul him”... or hope that he throws up a poor percentage shot out of position, which he does a lot. You make a valid point though. However, that still doesn’t negate my main concern which is that his offensive game is fixated on playing with his back to the basket. If you break down his possessions--both last season and this--close to eighty five percent of his offensive game is predicated on backing down the defender(s). Right now that’s fine, so as long as he keeps passing out of double teams, getting to the line where he’s shooting an improved 81% this season, and not getting called for charges. But in terms of his future value, a player of his size playing the 4--maybe even the 5--in the NBA needs to develop a face-up game. A face up game is something he just so happens to lack, terribly. To be honest, he 
doesn’t have much of one at all. In return, he can’t easily create his own shot. That’s what separates him most from the other projected elite players coming out of college. It’s what separates him from being a future roll player, compared to a definitive game changer. Ultimately that’s what this argument is about isn’t it?-- his being an elite talent and not finding himself relegated to a role player at the next level who can snare 9-10 rebounds?
To his credit though, he’s thinned down and has gotten slightly better at getting to the basket on the dribble, so I’m not writing him off. And that’s the most important thing to take from what I’m saying-- that I’m not at all writing him off.
Me: So you admit he’s shown a lot of improvement from last season to this. Isn’t that all you can ask for at this point? Isn’t that all you can ask from anyone at such a young age? You should be eating your own words.
Him: Maybe I should. Is it possible, though, that his improvement from last season to this has a little bit to do with your/our self confirmation bias? Going into the year, you knew he would be improved in his sophomore season, that’s basically why he stayed another year. In your mind, he has improved. While his FG% is higher, his mid/long range jumper looks about the same, it hasn’t improved by any means, nor has his defense for that matter. But I’m not blaming you nor anyone else for over-scoring the strides he has made, that kind of thing is forgivable when your team is stacked and ranked second in the nation. At that point there’s really nothing negative to say about him or anyone else, you fill in the blanks on your own.
Me: Well the truth is that we don’t know that much about anyone still. He played against Duke and Florida and he looked good, but that is a very small sampling size, I’m aware. Even I’m not going to go overboard and take a ton of stock in games against Virginia Military, Northern Florida, Jackson State, etc. I am actually more level headed than you think.
Him: You’re right, it is still very much early in the season, and he hasn’t faced a lot of stiff competition to challenge his game. It’s hard to properly evaluate the degree of his improvements or the lack thereof. Either way, he’ll be the most interesting player to keep on eye on as this college season progresses into conference play and OSU faces off against the “far better than we expected” Big Ten. I hope he proves wrong everything I said. After all, at the core, just like you, I’m the biggest Ohio State basketball fan there is.
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