Process, Outcomes, Patience, and xwOBA

One can look at Oakland’s rotation ERA of 4.68, a mark which is in the bottom half of the league, and think it is a staff comprised entirely of batting practice pitchers. A’s starters have allowed 56 earned runs, the 4th-most in baseball and more than 40 more than Tampa Bay Rays starters. My question is are all earned runs really earned? As far as the box score goes, yes. But as far as how they’re earned, my answer is no.

A hitter’s goal is almost always to drive the ball hard either in a gap or over the fence. Even speedy slap would prefer their batted-balls finds gaps between fielders than head directly toward them. Pitchers, on the other hand, desperately want to avoid hard-contact, or…