Matt Swartz’s arbitration estimates have been published at MLB Trade Rumors, and now we can plug those numbers into the payroll spreadsheet to produce an active roster payroll estimate of around $65 million to start the 2016-17 offseason and not much escalation over the next few years. That should give the A's around $20-30 million to consider spending on free agents this offseason even before considering the potential release of non-tender candidates Danny Valencia and Yonder Alonso.
The A’s have six arbitration-eligible players this year, the 2017 figures are from the MLBTR estimate (listed in italics with an asterisk*), and 2018-19 arbitration figures are just my best rough guess:
| Oakland A's 25-man and contracted players payroll projection (2017 arbitration estimates from MLBTR) | |||||
| Player | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Type | |
| Position Players | Jed Lowrie | $6,500,000 | Buyout ($6M team) | Contract | |
| Danny Valencia | $5,300,000* | FA | Arbitration | ||
| Yonder Alonso | $4,100,000* | FA | Arbitration | ||
| Khris Davis | $5,000,000* | $10,000,000 | $15,000,000 | Arbitration | |
| Stephen Vogt | $3,700,000* | $7,000,000 | $10,000,000 | Arbitration | |
| Marcus Semien | $515,000 | $4,000,000 | $8,000,000 | Arbitration | |
| Josh Phegley | $515,000 | $1,500,000 | $2,500,000 | Arbitration | |
| Mark Canha | $515,000 | $1,500,000 | $2,500,000 | Arbitration | |
| Pre-arb Position players | $2,575,000 | $4,180,000 | $4,240,000 | ||
| Starters | Sonny Gray | $3,700,000* | $7,000,000 | $11,000,000 | Arbitration |
| Kendall Graveman | $515,000 | $3,000,000 | $6,000,000 | Arbitration | |
| Pre-arb starters | $1,545,000 | $1,567,500 | $1,590,000 | ||
| Bullpen | John Axford | $5,500,000 | FA | Contract | |
| Ryan Madson | $7,500,000 | $7,500,000 | FA | Contract | |
| Sean Doolittle | $2,630,000 | $4,350,000 | Buyout ($6M team) | Contract | |
| Liam Hendriks | $1,000,000* | $2,000,000 | $3,000,000 | Arbitration | |
| Pre-arb relievers | $1,545,000 | $2,090,000 | $3,180,000 | ||
| Billy Butler (Released) | $10,000,000 | ||||
| Coco Crisp (Buyout) | $750,000 | ||||
| Jed Lowrie (Buyout) | $1,000,000 | ||||
| Sean Doolittle (Buyout) | $500,000 | ||||
| September callups | $1,200,000 | $1,200,000 | $1,300,000 | ||
| GRAND TOTAL | $64,605,000 | $57,887,500 | $68,810,000 | ||
Some items of note:
- Home runs mean big bucks at arbitration, and Matt Swartz's arbitration model has Khris Davis is earning $5,000,000 on his 102 career home runs.