Because there is no sample size too small no matter what statistically-based analysts might argue, the first projection du jour of the new baseball season is that the 30 major league teams will combine to crack the 7,000-home-run barrier this year.
This is a ridiculous assertion given that the leagues combined to just break the 6,000-homer barrier a year ago (6,105, or nine percent more than in 2016). Nine percent more than 6,105 is barely 6,500.
But then you see the way baseball is clearly progressing, Three True Outcomes-wise, and then you see that fully 15 percent of all fly balls on Opening Day ended up as home runs (33 of 218, or 15.