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Fun with the A’s PECOTA projections, which aren’t fun at all

We’re still in the heart of no real baseball, so let’s take a look at another well respected but not perfect projection system. This week’s system is PECOTA, Nate Silver’s baby from over a decade ago. What is PECOTA?

Stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. PECOTA is BP's proprietary system that projects player performance based on comparison with historical player-seasons. There are three elements to PECOTA:

1) Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors;

2) Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player's true talent level;

3) A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players' stats changed over time.