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The white-knuckle finishes will continue until morale improves

NC State thankfully closes out the regular season with three of four at home, though this hardly decreases the odds of several tight finishes the rest of the way. The Wolfpack’s final quarter of league games, which began Tuesday in Syracuse, comes against teams that are all in the general vicinity of State in the Pomeroy Ratings (and NET).

Have a look at what KenPom projects for the outcomes of these last four:

UNC: NCSU 77-74 (State win probability 60%)
Wake: NCSU 82-75 (State win probability 72%)
Clemson: NCSU 76-70 (State win probability 71%)
Duke: Duke 72-69 (State win probability 38%)

Roughly, that puts the odds of NC State going 3-0 at home at about 30%.