ESPN published Bill Connelly’s preview of the ACC Atlantic yesterday (it’s behind the paywall though), and while Clemson is of course well ahead of any other team in the division, SP+ sees the middle portion of the standings as a mess of toss-up games.
Here, for example, the games on NC State’s schedule where State’s estimated win probability is between 40-60%:
Relative toss-ups: Louisville (57%), at Wake Forest (57%), at Boston College (56%), at Florida State (53%), at Mississippi State (44%)
It’s worth noting, as Connelly does, that SP+ could be undervaluing NC State because it doesn’t take Devin Leary’s injury into account—if Leary improves while also playing a full season, that can make a big difference, and then maybe a couple of these games look more like should-wins.