The the “Dance Card” formula was developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Economists Incorporated, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University and is designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.
This formula has correctly predicted 209 of 218 at-large bids over the last six years combined (96%).
Last week (Feb 4) NC State’s chances of making the Big Dance were 99.9%. After losing to Virginia Tech and UNC last week, the Wolfpack is now projected to be the last team in, and has a 76.