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Exactly How Unlikely was NC State’s 69-67 Victory Over Clemson?

I knew that NC State beat the odds beating Clemson 69-67 with a buzzer-beater earlier today, but I just couldn’t help myself.

I needed to know how bad the odds were as the time ticked off the clock.

(The following data is from ESPN’s Gamecast.)

When Torin Dorn hit a three pointer with 2:24 left in the game, NC State had a 41.5% chance of winning.

Had NC State snagged the defensive rebound when Marcquise Reed missed a 3-point attempt, I’m not sure what the odds were, but they would have been better than Clyde Trapp getting 3 offensive rebounds that ended in a layup.