Bud Elliott’s Blue Chip Ratio is a simple concept—the percentage of 4- and 5-star recruits on a given roster—that’s also highly predictive. If your ratio isn’t at 50% or better, history says you are not a national title contender in college football.
Heading into 2020, there are 15 programs which meet that criteria. (Though you can definitely whittle that list further—I don’t think anybody in the bottom half, or Texas, is capable of winning it.) There are the usual suspects at the top, and not surprisingly, those are all the schools that have been making the playoffs on a regular basis.