In the past, we saw a QB getting picked as the #1 overall pick on 33 occasions, the most recent one being the 2020 Draft when Joe Burrow was picked by Cincinnati. Quarterbacks are the ones that usually get picked first in the draft and the Vegas odds suggest that’s exactly what’s going to happen in the 2021 NFL Draft.
The same happened in the two drafts before – Kyler Murray was picked by Arizona in 2019, while in 2018, Cleveland picked Baker Mayfield.
Position (Number of First Overall Selections - The Last Time It Was Selected)
Quarterback (33 - 2020)
Running Back (23 - 1995)
Defensive Lineman (15 - 2017)
Offensive Lineman (7 - 2013)
Wide Receiver (3 - 1996)
Linebacker (3 - 1988)
Defensive Back (1 - 1956)
The last time a non-quarterback was the #1 overall pick was in 2017 when defensive end Myles Garrett was Cleveland's choice.*First Overall Picks by Position
The way things look right now, it seems very likely that another quarterback will be picked as the #1 overall draft this year. But, which non-QB will be picked first in 2021?
1st Non-Quarterback to Be Drafted
According to oddsmakers, Kyle Pitts, the tight end for the University of Florida is the main candidate. The second on that list is Ja'Marr Chase (wide receiver for LSU), followed by Penei Sewell (offensive tackle for the University of Oregon).
What's kind of strange is that the winner of the 2020 Heisman Trophy, DeVonta Smith (wide receiver for the Alabama Crimson Tide) is only the 7th favorite.
Odds for the 1st Non-QB to be Drafted:
Kyle Pitts +125
Ja'Marr Chase +220
Penei Sewell +250
Rashawn Slater +600
Micah Parsons +2000
Patrick Surtain II +2000
DeVonta Smith + 4000
Jalen Waddle +4100
Kwity Paye +5000
Jaycee Horn +6600
Jaelan Phillips +6600
Who's Not Looking for a QB in the 2021 Draft?
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the ones to make the first overall pick in the 2021 Draft. They do have a decent QB in Gardner Minshew, but his backups can't be considered elite. For this reason, the Jags are almost certainly going to pick a QB in Round 1 – Trevor Lawrence is the most likely candidate.
The same goes for the New York Jets, the team that holds the draft's second overall selection. Knowing that the Jets were the team with the lowest number of points in 2020, it's almost certain their first pick is going to be a quarterback – Zach Wilson seems like the one.
The San Francisco 49ers get to pick third. Unlike the Jags and Jets, the 49ers weren't terrible in 2020. The reason why they get to pick so early in the draft is that they traded the selection with the Miami Dolphins. The decision to jump the queue can be explained by San Francisco's desire to get another QB – Justin Fields might the man they're after.
The Atlanta Falcons are 4th in line to make their pick in the 2021 Draft. It seems that no one can dethrone Matt Ryan from the position of the starting QB, so the Falcons might turn their focus to another position. In fact, it's rumored they will be going for a tight end – Kyle Pitts is widely considered to be the best player in that position in the 2021 Draft.
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