Guest column by Nate Weller, Sports Info Solutions
There may not be another play that can get a fan yelling at his TV more quickly than a draw or screen on third down. Broadcasters generally concede that it was the right thing to do, and it is explained away as the "smart" or "conservative" play, and it is left at that. And while "conservative" is probably a fair characterization, "smart" may not be. The numbers suggest that coaches are overly risk-averse on third-and-long and would benefit from being more aggressive in these situations.
The Impact of Air Yards on Third-and-Long
To start breaking it down, throw depth was taken as a percentage of yards to gain.