NFL Super Bowl - The Kansas City Chiefs needed a field goal in the final seconds to prevail in last night's Super Bowl LVII, 38-35. It felt like a close game throughout. In fact, it felt like the Eagles were outplaying the Chiefs, at least in the first half.
Our numbers surprisingly disagree.
Instead, the Kansas City Chiefs dominated the Eagles in DVOA, with a 68% DVOA for the game compared to -32% for the Eagles. Add in the Chiefs' advantage on penalties and Kansas City ends up with a 98% Post-Game Win Expectancy.
| DVOA (with opponent adjustments) | ||||
| TEAM | TOT | OFF | DEF | ST |
| KC | 68% | 54% | -12% | 2% |
| PHI | -32% | 2% | 26% | -8% |
| VOA (no opponent adjustments) | ||||
| TEAM | TOT | OFF | DEF | ST |
| KC | 48% | 47% | 1% | 2% |
| PHI | -47% | 2% | 40% | -8% |
How does DVOA end up with such a big gap for a game where Kansas City had such a small advantage on the scoreboard?