It doesn’t require a sophisticated analytics model to know that turnovers are bad. Surrendering possession near the line of scrimmage is almost always very costly to a team’s winning prospects. A second consideration is the advancement of the ball after the turnover. It is instinctual for players to try to score after an interception or a recovered fumble, but it often comes with risk. Defensive players, particularly those who are not accustomed to carrying the ball, are taught to fall on a fumble recovery rather than scoop it up and keep running. There are exceptions, of course, but we often see valuable turnovers squandered because a player tried to do too much.
Risky Business
