There are many factors that affect the game state of an NFL game and have a direct influence on the Game-Winning Chance (GWC). Football is different, in this way, from many other sports. Each down represents a unique situation that is defined by score, ball position, yards-to-first, clock, timeouts and the match up of the teams’ strengths and weaknesses. It is like a book of problems where each turn of the page reveals a new game state we have literally never seen before. We may be able to reference a similar situation that has occurred in the past, but it will not properly account for the astronomical number of combinations that define the play at hand.
Risky Business
