We are often asked if our analytics ever endorse conservative actions on fourth-and-short decisions. While it is true as a general rule that aggressive first down attempts are often the dominant strategy with respect to Game-Winning Chance (GWC), each decision is unique. Two examples of exceptions occurred yesterday at the ends of the first halves for the Buccaneers and the Colts. The Buccaneers had a fourth-and-goal at the 1-yard line, leading by 8 points, and the Colts had a fourth-and-goal from the 2-yard line, leading by 3 points. In each instance there was time for just one play before the half, and in each case, it was correct to kick the field goal!
Risky Business
