How accurately can you predict draft order with combine stats alone? Not very.
With the NFL draft fast approaching and the combine in the rearview mirror, one has to wonder how the two biggest events of the football offseason actually relate. We could speak qualitatively for days about the combine’s impact on draft standing. Mel Kiper and other analysts are sure to update their big boards based on players’ performances at football’s greatest showcase, but can we quantitatively model the impact of combine statistics on draft order?
Using a data set from nflsavant.com that includes combine stats and draft order from 1999-2014, I built a model that attempts to capture the relationship between performance in certain events and draft order.