The Buffalo Bills remain No. 1 in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings after this week's win over the Miami Dolphins. In fact, the top eight teams remain the same with only one change, Tampa Bay hopping the Los Angeles Rams to rank third overall behind Buffalo and Arizona. Under that top eight, however, there's some surprising movement and teams that aren't quite where you expect them to be in our rankings.
You may remember back at the start of the season, I introduced a formula called Post-Game Win Expectancy (PGWE). This formula asks the question, "Given how each team played in this game, based on VOA splits without opponent adjustments, how often should we expect each team to win the game?