Expected Score: Iowa 16.78, Penn State 19.50
EPA/play: Iowa -0.151, Penn State -0.291
Eckel Ratio: Iowa 54.5%
Prior to quarterback Sean Clifford's injury-induced second-quarter exit, the Nittany Lions led the Hawkeyes 17-3. Penn State prevented Iowa from, well, being Iowa: the Hawkeyes had just one drive starting in plus territory (their only scoring drive) and turned two interceptions into only three points. Penn State had outgained Iowa 6.1 to 2.7 yards per play. Through the first five possessions, Penn State's game had gone according to plan.
After Clifford went out, Iowa outscored Penn State 20-3, with 10 of those points coming on drives starting at the 50 and the Penn State 44.