Three of the most notable outcomes in college football last weekend were wins by Notre Dame, Baylor, and UT San Antonio over Wisconsin, Iowa State, and Memphis, respectively. But each of those final outcomes was somewhat deceptive.
When considering the final outcome of a game, it's important to separate the signal from the noise; what is salient and predictive, and informs our understanding going forward, versus the stochastic wonder that comes from playing a game with 22 players chasing around an oddly-shaped leather ball. In the three games we'll dive into this week, turnovers and special teams were directly responsible for 45 points and dramatically altered the outcomes of otherwise close games.