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Introducing Targets Above Expectation

Guest column by Bryce Rossler, Sports Info Solutions

Considering the shortcomings in the current metrics available to evaluate receiver performance, SIS sought to develop a metric that would characterize a receiver's ability to earn targets based on his role within an offense. Statistics like Target Share and Yards per Route Run, while valuable, are results-based measures that do not account for play-level information.

Examining the game situation, pre-snap alignment, route, and coverage paints a better picture of how a receiver performed relative to the league average. For example, a slot receiver who is running an out route on first-and-10 against Cover-3 is expected to be targeted X percent of the time.