Do you like roulette?
Because picking a successful player in the first round of fantasy drafts is roughly the equivalent of betting on red or black in the casino. That’s what the data tells us over the past six seasons.
Since 2011, only 44% of high-end RB1s from the previous season (RBs who finished RB1–RB6) and 47% of high-end WR1s from the previous season (WRs who finished WR1–WR6) have finished top-12 at their position the following season. (So you’re telling me there’s a chance…)
But unlike the spin of a roulette wheel, there is information at our disposal to help us increase those odds of successfully hitting on our first-round pick in hopes of not becoming the Lloyd Christmas or Harry Dunne of our leagues.