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Finding the Optimal Pass/Run Ratio

Guest column by Lau Sze Yui

Every football fan probably knows that passing in football is generally more efficient than rushing. But how much passing is really enough?

To answer this, we first need some prior knowledge of how pass/run balance works in NFL. For example, Sean Clement found that previous run attempts have no effect on a team's running success rate; hence, theoretically speaking, no matter how many runs a team has, its efficiency is still the same (and lower than that of passing). But one of the reasons why teams run the ball is to set up play-action, which utilizes the threat of running and is more efficient than normal passes.