The Buffalo Bills opened as 17-point home favorites against the Houston Texans in Week 4.
A 17-plus-point spread is a rare bird in the NFL. There have been just 62 spreads that wide since 1978. There probably weren't very many in the 60 years before that, because scoring averages (and therefore expected margins of victory) were far lower. Favorites are just 25-34-3 ATS in games with 17-plus-point spreads, which hints that the Texans might be the shrewd play on Sunday. The favorites are 57-5 straight up in those games, but Texans fans can take some solace in the fact that the last upset came very recently, when the Dolphins beat the Patriots in December of 2019.