Touchdown variance can be a painful part of fantasy football, as anyone who rostered Tevin Coleman in Week 2 only to watch Matt Ryan vulture two rushing TDs can attest to.
Certain scenarios — Ryan hadn't rushed for a touchdown since 2012 — can not be predicted. But there are trends you can uncover when looking at the bigger picture.
Drew Brees, for instance, finished with only 23 passing TDs last season despite no notable dip in his play after throwing at least 32 in each of the nine prior seasons. Unsurprisingly, positive regression is working in Brees' favor, and definitely in favor of Michael Thomas, to start 2018.