Breaking the Book
Welcome to the first installment of Breaking the Book, your guide to the upcoming weekend’s football action from a handicapper’s perspective. This season, Chat Sports is proud to welcome handicapper Jason Cellura as a guest columnist. Jason is CEO of BookDogger, a social betting startup, and has vowed to provide Chat Sports readers with his expert insight on the picks he’s making each week.
Every Friday, we’ll chat with Jason about the upcoming action and identify his top five plays of the week (pro or college). We’ll also include a rundown on the Blazing 5 picks made by everyone’s favorite talking head, Colin Cowherd, and compare Jason and Colin’s records each week to decide who the true superstar handicapper is.
Cellura’s Cover 5
Our goal here is to win a little cash, and that requires scrutinizing under-the-radar games to uncover the slightest bits of value. Sure, laying dough on big games like South Carolina vs. Georgia or Notre Dame vs. Michigan is all good fun, but this overanalyzed market becomes far too efficient. The less-covered games are where the real MAC-tion is.
Let’s get down to it. There is a decidedly Ohio flare to our Cover 5 picks this week with two Cincinnati teams and Toledo expected to take the bull by the horns.
Cincinnati Bearcats (-7.5) at Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois rushed for all of 49 yards on 30 carries against Southern Illinois (you read that right) in a game where they needed to fend off a late rally to survive. Cincinnati, meanwhile, smothered Purdue and pretty much had their way on offense. Look for the Illini to put up an early fight before eventually withering in the face of an underrated Bearcats squad.
Cellura’s Pick: Cincinnati -7.5
Florida Gators (-3) at Miami Hurricanes
This is the last installment of this matchup for the foreseeable future. It’s sure to be entertaining as Miami brings in a high-octane offense to battle Florida’s top-flight defense. I think Miami’s reliance on the big play does them in as they match up with a Florida D that’s only allowed TWO rushes of 50+ yards over the past 10 years. Look for the Gators to come out on top in a good old fashioned South Beach knife fight…er, slug fest.
Cellura’s Pick: Florida -3
Toledo Rockets (+17) at Missouri Tigers
Toledo ran into a brick wall last week losing 24-6 in the Swamp, while Missouri beat down the Little Sisters of the Poor (not technically, but Murray St. isn’t much better). I have to believe a veteran Toledo O (9 returning starters) will be operating with a chip on their shoulder and find a little more success this week against a Missouri D that is not on the same level as Florida. Chalk this one up as a shout out to Chat Sports CEO (and Toledo alum) James Yoder and ride the Rockets.
Cellura’s Pick: Toledo +17
Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Chicago Bears
The Bengals are one of my breakout teams of the year. They’re young, talented and have what it takes to make a run deep into the playoffs, so long as Andy Dalton bounces back from a rough end to last season. Take the Bengals and the points, but if you’re feeling like a gunslinger take them heads-up at +140 odds.
Cellura’s Pick: Bengals +3
Houston Texans (-3.5) at San Diego Chargers
Arian Foster is a little banged up and the public money is heavy on the Texans. That being said, it’s hard to believe the Texans don’t cover against a team all but destined to be a bottom-dweller in a bad AFC. Lay the points and roll the Texans to victory.
Cellura’s Pick: Texans -3.5
Cellura’s Quick Slants
• Boston College -2.5 vs. Wake Forest
• Syracuse +17 at Northwestern
• Ohio -4 vs. North Texas
• Texas -7 at BYU
• Browns -1 vs. Dolphins
• Panthers +3.5 vs. Seahawks
Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5
Colin’s backing 3 dogs this week (Bengals, Titans and Panthers) with one toss-up (Browns) and one chalk (Bucs). He started last year with a losing week before rattling off a ridiculous 13-week winning streak. On the college side, he’s heavy on the road teams with 7 of his 9 college picks playing away from home.
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears
Colin’s take: The better team is getting the points; Colin will take that all day long. Cincinnati ended last year on a roll and has picked up new weapons on offense. The Bengals D-line will outclass a makeshift Bears O-line that’s still learning the system of new Bears coach Mark Trestman. Take the Bengals and the points.
Colin’s Pick: Bengals +3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets
Colin’s take: The Jets are weaponless on offense with a shaky line. The Bucs, meanwhile, have greatly upgraded skill positions, a healthy D-line and new additions on the backend in Revis-Island and Goldson. This feels like an absolute blowout but Rex’s D will keep it close for 2.5 quarters.
Colin’s Pick: Buccaneers -3
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
Colin’s take: Cleveland is one of the better “bad teams” in the NFL. The Browns’ O-line is one of the better units in the league while Miami’s line has been reshuffled over the offseason. Weeden is better than people think while Trent Richardson is one of the most underrated players in the league. Free agent WR’s rarely duplicate their previous numbers as Mike Wallace will soon find out. Take the Browns in a toss-up.
Colin’s Pick: Browns -1
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers
Colin’s take: Everyone loves the Steelers but Colin doesn’t when they’re missing Mike Wallace, Heath Miller, and Le’veon Bell. The Titans have an upgraded O-line and skill positions while the Steelers come in beat up and with an aging defense. This’ll be a “punch you in the neck” kind of game with 7 points too much to lay for the Steelers.
Colin’s Pick: Titans +7
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Colin’s take: Carolina had Seattle beat last year and this year brings in an O-line that can push around the Seahawks’ defensive front. Carolina lost a lot of close games last year and gets a Seahawks team flying to the East Coast for a 10am PT start. Take Carolina and the points.
Colin’s Pick: Panthers +3.5
Colin’s College Picks
• Florida -3 at Miami
• Oregon -22 at Virginia
• San Diego State +28 at Ohio State
• South Carolina +3.5 at Georgia
• Syracuse +17 at Northwestern
• Texas -7 at BYU
• Oklahoma -21 vs. West Virginia
• Michigan -4 vs. Notre Dame
• Washington State +16 at USC
Tip of the Week
Whether you’re playing for keeps or to simply get a little more enjoyment out of the weekend, it all starts with proper bankroll management. Let’s say your total available bankroll is $1,000. In this case, you can break your bankroll into 100 “units” worth $10. Best practice is to wager no more than 5 units on any single event based on your conviction on the outcome. This means that with a $1,000 bankroll you shouldn’t be wagering more than $50 on any one game. Don’t chase the dragon – manage your bankroll wisely and you’ll end up with a more enjoyable and successful sports betting experience.
About Jason Cellura
Jason is founder & CEO of BookDogger (www.bookdogger.com).
BookDogger is a sports gaming website that delivers the sports betting experience with a social twist. BookDogger eliminates the risks of real money gambling and delivers legal sports betting competitions that can be enjoyed with friends, similar to fantasy sports. BookDogger’s first free-to-play contest is its Leaderboard Contest where players compete each month for a shot at $500 in cash. BookDogger is based in San Francisco, CA. Connect via Facebook or Twitter.
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