Yesterday was one of my favorite days of the baseball offseason, as it was PECOTA day. The publication of the full Baseball Prospectus projections for the upcoming season is marked on my calendar because it always occurs near the beginning of spring training and is arguably the most accurate of the various projection systems. In perusing the site’s 2018 expected results, a theme emerged: BP likes the Yankees more than other contemporary projections.
While Steamer and ZIPS jointly forecasted 91 wins for the Yankees in a dogfight for the AL East title, and USA Today’s projections pegged the team for 93, PECOTA sees the Yankees as a 96 win team running away with the division.