Nestor Cortes and the third-time-through-the-order conundrum

Nestor Cortes’ struggles have been well-documented this season. He’s got a 5.16 ERA on the year, but in terms of the way his stuff is working, he doesn’t seem to be terribly different than he was last season. By now, the pattern has been established: He looks like his usual excellent self through four or five innings before hitting a wall that didn’t seem to be there in 2022. His time-through-the-order splits tell the entire tale — he’s getting absolutely walloped whenever he sees a hitter who he’s already faced twice that day:

That OPS progression is truly startling.