Every player, no matter their level of skill, has a wide spectrum of possible performance, with a floor, a ceiling, and everything in between. Projection systems, like Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA in this case, use aging curves, previous performance, and countless other factors to try and quantify this set of potential outcomes. I’m going to dive into PECOTA’s projections for the Yankees in the (hopefully) upcoming 2022 season. Because of the struggles a handful of players on the team have had, their projections are unsure where they will ultimately end up.
Rather than diving deep into every player, I’ll discuss the most notable or eye-catching projections.