While the non-waiver trade deadline is still looming, it’s probably too early to predict who will win the World Series. However, below are five reasons the Yankees will win the World Series, as well as five reasons why they could still crash and burn on their way to October.
The Bullpen
With Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances anchoring the bullpen, it’s reminiscent of 1996 when Mariano Rivera was setting up for eventual World Series MVP John Wetteland. With both having great seasons, Miller healthy again, and Chasen Shreve, Justin Miller and Adam Warren handling the early relief work, the bullpen is clearly one of the team’s strengths.
Given the success of the Royals last year, as well as the Yankees of the late-90’s (does anyone remember Ramiro Mendoza, Jeff Nelson and Mike Stanton?), it’s clear that they are attempting to shorten the games.
Coming out of the All-Star break, they played five one-run games, winning four. Can the arms stand up to the amount of innings they will be asked to throw if they are in a pennant race and still have enough stamina to last through October?
Two Aces?
Both Michael Pineda and Masahiro Tanaka have shown flashes of brilliance this season. Pineda had a 16-strikeout game, with no walks, against the Orioles and Tanaka has bounced back nicely from an elbow injury a year ago and a stint on the disabled list earlier this year. He appears to be more economical with his pitches when his stuff is on, rather than going deep in to counts looking for the strikeout.
Can one of these two pitchers be this year’s Madison Bumgarner and dominate October? They both appear capable.
However, Pineda hasn’t pitched over 100 innings since 2011 and he missed the next two seasons. Last year, his total was 76.1. So far this season, he’s thrown 118 innings. How much more does Big Mike have?
While Tanaka knows how to win, he has developed a penchant for giving up the long ball. He’s already allowed 15 home runs in 81.2 innings this year and he gave up the same amount last year in 136.1. In October, the long ball can be a killer, not only on the scoreboard, but also for momentum when the crowds are larger and more focused.
More importantly, the Yankees are wary to let Tanaka start on the normal four days rest. This could be very problematic in October, and would definitely preclude him from pitching on three days rest if they had a must win game.
The Line Up
The Yankees have scored the second most runs in the league entering play today. With two of the premier table setters in the game in Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner, and the resurgence of Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, the Yankees offense seems good on paper.
But once you dig a little deeper, you see that it’s a team that relies too heavily on the home run. Can they manufacture a run in the postseason, especially late in the game? Can Didi Gregorius bunt? Can Stephen Drew be relied upon to hit in a big spot? Can ARod and Teixeira keep it going all year?
The Checkbook
History says that the Yankees will leverage their future, trade the prospects and not care about the financial implications. Cole Hamels, James Shields, Aroldis Chapman and other high salaried pitchers could certainly help the Yankees. George Steinbrenner’s Yankees wouldn’t be happy unless they landed the biggest prize in the bunch, especially with the Mets already making some moves.
Brian Cashman has been quiet this trading season. While I expect a move or two, I think they will be to help the back end of the rotation, upgrade second base, or solidify an already stellar bullpen. I am not expecting Cole Hamels. I am expecting the Yankees to hold on to their prospects, but could make a deal if all it costs is cash.
Mystique and Aura
The Yankees are currently 30-17 at home. If they can manage to grab home-field advantage for the first round or overall (they are four games behind the Royals), they could give the fans reasons to flock to the Bronx and get loud.
The Yankees can also bring out legend after legend to throw out the first pitch. Can you imagine how loud The Stadium would be if Mariano Rivera or Derek Jeter stepped on the field prior to a playoff or World Series game? Talk about a home-field advantage!
Yet the configuration of the new stadium is more spread out than the original Yankee Stadium. There, it felt like you were on top of the field. The new stadium doesn’t have that same feeling. Plus, a lot of the people sitting in the best seats spend their time in the clubs and restaurants rather in their seats making it uncomfortable for the opponents.
I think the Yankees do have a chance to go far in the postseason. They can protect their starters with their deep bullpen and they have stars whom have won in the postseason before. Would anyone be surprised if Carlos Beltran got hot again in October? Maybe the X-Factor isn’t even on the team yet.
I know this for sure: there’s a lot of baseball yet to be played, but the Yankees are more relevant now than they’ve been since 2012 and with the Mets in the hunt also, it will be a fun few months in New York.
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