The Home Run Derby is the baseball equivalent to the NBA's Slam Dunk Contest. The Derby doesn't count for anything, but is often one of the most exciting parts of the MLB All Star break. We all know that chicks dig the long ball.
The 2012 StateFarm Home Run Derby will be Monday, July 9th, at 8 EST on ESPN.
The Park:
The 2012 edition of the derby will be held at Kauffman stadium, home of the Kansas city Royals.
Kauffman has been known to be a bit of a pitchers park, either that or lack of Royals power numbers have skewed statistics over the years. The field at Kauffman has no quirks or huge advantages distance wise to left or right field. No short porches of green monsters will help the hitters at this fair park. Over the years, Kauffman has been slightly more friendly to right handed hitters, but don't expect a huge advantage for the righties. Look for a few balls to land in the right field fountains, a usually unreachable distance.
The Teams:
National League Team:
Matt Kemp (Captain)- Dodgers
Stats: 12 home runs, 10 At Bats per home run. Bats Right Handed.
The Dodgers superstar has been tasked with leading the NL team into the derby. Kemp has struggled to stay healthy this year, but has been on fire when he has suited up. Remember, the Home Run Derby requires some stamina. Kemp could either be fresh from days off, or a little out of playing shape. Look for Kemp to show of his smooth power stroke, but come up a bit short. Kemp won't make it past the second round.
Andrew McCutchen- Pirates (Replaced Giancarlos Stanton)
Stats: 18 home runs, 17 ABs per home run. Bats Right Handed.
The Pirates center fielder would probably be the MVP of the first half of the season. McCutchen is batting an insane .362 and has hit for good power, knocking out 16 long balls. The guy is a flat out star flying under the radar in Pittsburgh. Now that I have told you how good he is, I'm going to flip completely and tell you he won't do well in the derby. Unlike the guy he is replacing, McCutchen is a small guy who will struggle to generate enough power in the derby format. McCutchen will be gone in the first round.
Carlos Gonzalez- Rockies
Stats: 17 home runs, 17 ABs per home run. Bats Left Handed.
CarGo is a great in-game hitter who hits for power and a high average. A true five tool player, like Kemp, CarGo is asgood as they come when it counts. Unfortunately, only one tool matters in the derby. In addition, CarGo's swing doesn't translate well to the derby, and he could easily get fatigued after a couple big hacks. Look for the Rockies star outfielder to get bounced early. Critics of Gonzalez have also added that playing in home run happy Colorado gives Gonzalez better power numbers.
Carlos Beltran- Cardinals
Stats: 20 home runs, 13 ABs per home run. Bats Switch.
Beltran, who used to play in Kansas City, is celebrating a bit of a homecoming. The smooth swinging outfielder is one of the more elderly contestants, but is havingone of the best years of his career. Besides Bautista, Beltran has the tied for the 2nd most home runs of any contestant. Look for Beltran to make it to the 2nd round but bow out before the finals. If the Kansas City crowd gets behind him, it could give him the juice he needs to make the finals.
American League Team
Robinson Cano (Captain)- Yankees
Stats: 20 home runs, 15 ABs per home run. Bats Left Handed.
The Yankee's second baseman can come into the 2012 derby with confidence. Cano won last year's derby in dominating fashion, belting 32 total bombs. Even though Cano has showed he has what it takes, look for the lefty to pass the torch elsewhere this year. Cano will make the second round, but doesn't have what it takes to make the finals.
Mark Trumbo- Angels
Stats: 20 home runs, 13 ABs per home run. Bats Right Handed.
The Angels power hitter is probably the biggest surprise contestant in the 2012 derby. Trumbo has put up good power numbers this year in a loaded Angels lineup, but might be a little out of his league in his first home run derby. If Trumbo gets the deer in the headlights look, he will be going out in the first round.
Jose Bautista- Blue Jays
Stats: 27 home runs, 11 ABs per home run. Bats Right Handed.
There is no debating it, Bautista has been the best power hitter over the last two seasons. Once again leading the majors in round trippers, Bautista is considered one of the favorites. A dead pull hitter, Bautista will look to generate bat speed and yank them out over the left field wall. Even though he struggled in the derby last year, Bautista will rebound this year and benefit from a year of experience. I like Bautista to make a run at the finals.
Prince Fielder- Tigers
Stats: 14 home runs, 22 ABs per home run. Bats Left Handed.
Statistically speaking, Fielder is the odd man out in this competition. Visually speaking, he is the favorite. Fielder lives for the Home Run Derby. He was belting balls out of Tiger Stadium at the age of 12. His massive swing generates enough power to run a small city. The only downside to Fielder is that his swing may tire him out. If Fielder can get it going and save some energy I like him to face off with Stanton in the finals. At the very least, Fielder will send a few monster shots deep into the Kansas City night.
The Champion:
Prince Fielder defeats Jose Bautista in the finals.
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