Baseball Prospectus released its annual PECOTA standings on Tuesday morning, with a pick for top in the National League East that may surprise some - none other than the New York Mets! The Mets are given a 48% chance of winning the division with a 75% chance of making the playoffs.
Per PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) the team is expected to notch 88 wins, one more than the Washington Nationals. Last year’s division winners, the Atlanta Braves, come in at third with 82 wins. Like many projection systems, these totals skew towards the average, so it’s a safe expectation that the eventual division winner will win more than 88.