Should he reject it, like every other free agent in the history of the one-year qualifying offer, the Mets will earn a compensatory Draft pick if he signs elsewhere. But should he accept it, the team will receive one more year of Murphy at what appears to be a reasonable market value.
The same forces that ease the Mets' concerns over making him a qualifying offer, however, increase the already strong chance he will reject it. Agents and executives have long pegged Murphy's value at around $10 million per season over three or four years. But his otherworldly postseason run, including home runs in five straight games and six in total, could bump that ever higher.