In a strange twist of the NBA’s offseason, Jeremy Lin’s offer sheet has taken over Dwight Howard’s trade saga.
Many have weighed in on their opinions regarding Lin’s future with the New York Knicks, only a few seem to understand why letting Lin go to Houston is a poor decision. We’ve long dealt with the Knicks planning for the future and they missed an opportunity to add an asset that could either help them on the court (Lin’s play) or help them relieve themselves of financial strain (the would-be expiring deal of $14.8 million in the third year of the offer sheet).
Now that we know where Lin is going to be playing next season, everyone will come out with their defenses about the Knicks being smart to let him go or dumb to not retain him. As many negatives as people can point out about Lin’s deal, how many care to really analyze it in the grand scheme of the NBA’s landscape of point guards?
Lin isn’t the best defender, he’s turnover prone and he really may just be a flash in the pan player who won’t turn into a star, maybe not even a long-term starter. But the first two years of his offer sheet really do make him a bargain. You can be fixated on the $5 million in each of the first two years of the contract, too. It’s okay to not just be focused on the fact he makes $14.8 million in the third year of the deal.
[caption id="attachment_360" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="Lin is Houston Bound, Does New York Have a Problem?"]
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A lot can change between this first season of his new deal and the last season. In either scenario, there will be a winner of some sort. Had the Knicks matched Lin’s offer, they would have had a capable fixture at the point guard position for the next two to three years. Jason Kidd’s veteran presence and leadership are lovely intangibles, but they won’t make his declining play any more remarkable. Raymond Felton’s a nice stopgap option but he’s 28 now, do we not know what we’re getting from him? No matter the bargain he’ll be playing at, the fact he’ll be replacing the single reason Knick basketball was so excited to watch last year will leave him little room for error; couple that with his inability to stay in shape and Felton essentially has no room to do anything.
Let’s entertain the idea that Lin is the real deal, that his 25 starts weren’t an anomaly and that he can actually play to the billing of his contract. What happens then?
The sudden fixation that the Knicks have with money is ironic and hypocritical considering two of their highest-paid players (Amare Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler both make a combined $158 million) are known to be injury prone, that didn’t stop Dolan from passing out the money to make them Knicks.
Carmelo Anthony, with all of his talent taken into consideration, is being paid $20 million a year for being out of the first round of the NBA Playoffs every year. Those three guys alone make up almost all of New York’s salary cap with nine other guys needed to simply fill out the roster, now there’s a concern about finances?
The thing is that Lin’s contract isn’t “ridiculous”, it’s back-loaded. The first two years could see him being essentially underpaid if he keeps up the numbers he put up in New York. Kyle Lowry just left Houston and averaged roughly 14/5/7, numbers Lin is capable of putting up in a system that plays to his strengths.
If Lin plays that way for $5 million a year, is he not due for a raise? Paying him $14.8 million would cost the Knicks roughly $30 million in luxury tax penalties but the thing about that argument is that New York isn’t avoiding the luxury tax without Lin, anyway. So why not take the risk?
There isn’t any telling how Amare’s body will further decline in the next two years, it’s hard to say that Tyson Chandler will be worth his $14.5 million annual salary. The Knicks’ cap situation right now, even without Lin’s new contract, still has them in a flux where someone is going to probably need to be traded once the team realizes they won’t win a championship with this core.
Those saying Lin’s deal at $14.8 million could kill the Knicks must not keep with the NBA too much considering all the supposed “untradeable” contracts that were signed and traded in the last few years. Big contracts get traded to teams that need expiring deals to come off their payroll so they can relieve themselves of financial strain.
We’ve seen Rashard Lewis get dealt twice, Gilbert Arenas has been traded, Joe Johnson, Emeka Okafor, Hedo Turkoglu, the list goes on. Lin’s deal pales in comparison to those deals considering it’s one year of a high salary, his age (26 in the third year) and his upside. If the Knicks wouldn’t like what they see in Lin in year three, trading his salary to a team that could use cap flexibility would be nothing when you consider they could rent a young point guard who could re-sign for a cheaper contract and prove to be a worthy investment.
The Knicks for years have wanted a farm system of players, they’ve messed that up by turning a group of young talented players surrounded by Amare Stoudemire into three highly played guys who probably won’t last together through the duration of their contracts. They had an opportunity to help themselves on the court considering Lin with Felton and Kidd could provide depth at point guard that no other team in the NBA could have and the marketability of Lin that made the Knicks globally exciting again.
Now, Lin will be a Rocket and Linsanity leaves the Big Apple. There’s no telling how good Lin will be in the coming years. He could be the next great point guard, he could be the next disappointment.
The problem isn’t about what Lin will be, it’s about what the Knicks always have been and will apparently always will be, confusing.
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